STRATFOR ASSESSMENT: Operation Anaconda: Questionable Outcomes for United States

Summary

Tajik Reinforcements May Drag U.S. Into Ethnic Conflict
The deployment of ethnic Tajik fighters to the front lines of the battle in Afghanistan could complicate matters for the United States.

The first of 1,000 troops promised by Afghanistan's interim government arrived March 8 in Paktia province to reinforce U.S.-led forces battling al Qaeda and Taliban fighters there, Agence France-Presse reported. Seven armed personnel carriers headed into the province, along with three trucks equipped with multiple-rocket launchers.
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Operation Anaconda signals the beginning of a new phase of the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan. In this phase insurgency and counterinsurgency operations will become the main feature. Militarily, Operation Anaconda shows the United States has yet to find an effective response on the ground to guerrilla warfare. Dominant air power will remain the only sufficient means to win battles, but it might not be enough to win the war in Afghanistan.

Analysis

Operation Anaconda, the fiercest battle in the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan, continued March 8, with the U.S. command claiming that complete victory was near after the deaths of several hundred al Qaeda fighters. Islamic news agencies, meanwhile, claimed the operation has been a failure: They say only a few dozen militants holed up in snowy mountain caves have been killed and that U.S. losses have been significantly higher than the eight dead and 40 wounded that officials have acknowledged.

Because journalists do not have access to the battle area in the eastern Afghan province of Paktia, Western media have mostly cited Pentagon sources. However none of the claims made by either side can be confirmed independently. With that in mind, STRATFOR is trying to reconstruct what has happened and to ascertain the ramifications Operation Anaconda will have for Afghanistan and the broader U.S. war on terrorism. We base our analysis on a critical study of available sources and on human intelligence sources from the region.