S T R A T F O R

THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE COMPANY

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Israel: Pullback or Advance?

Israeli tanks and troops pulled out of Qalqilya and Tulkarem on
April 9, redeploying troops in blockades around the two cities.
Meanwhile, fighting between Israeli and Palestinian forces
continued in Jenin, Nablus and Bethlehem, the blockade of
Palestinian stronghold Ramallah remained in place and Israeli
forces entered more Palestinian towns including Anabta, Dura,
Kabatiya and Yata.

More than four Israel Defense Forces divisions, totaling
thousands of troops, are involved in the West Bank offensive. The
operations include a tight closure on many Palestinian towns,
patrols and closures of many roads, and the protection of Israeli
settlements scattered throughout the territory.

Meanwhile, reports indicated that Israeli tanks, troops and
bulldozers launched an incursion into Palestinian areas near Beit
Hanun, in the northern Gaza Strip. Israeli police also went into
high alert in the Negev region of southern Israel, reportedly
responding to warnings of potential terrorist strikes.

Despite calls from U.S. President George W. Bush, Israel is not
ready to end its offensive. The current military campaign was
designed to stop Palestinian suicide bombers and break the
Palestinian will to fight. At least 2,000 Palestinians have been
arrested and 600 have been released, the Jerusalem Post reports,
citing Israeli military officials. But it is not clear that
Israel has succeeded in disrupting the infrastructure supporting
Palestinian militants.

Israel's withdrawal from two West Bank cities could be
interpreted as a wrapping-up operation, in preparation for a
pullback during U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell's upcoming
visit, now scheduled for April 12. However, the combined actions
of April 9 --including entry into several villages -- also can be
seen as evidence of continued sweeps and unchecked advance into
Palestinian territories.

While signs in the West Bank suggest the campaign is continuing,
it also is possible that Israel is preparing for an offensive in
Gaza. If Israeli soldiers move into Gaza in force, they likely
would not be able to wrap up such a massive operation before
Powell's scheduled arrival.

The action in Gaza during the next two days will be a key
indicator of how Israel plans to shape its relationship with the
United States and of its battlefield strategy.