Saudis Say the U.S., Not Iraq, Threatens Stability

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia -- This longtime ally of America isn't convinced that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein poses a serious and imminent military threat to regional stability and security. That threat, it believes, comes from another source: the United States, top officials say.

Many here think that Hussein has been chastened by his military failures and is unlikely to wage war on his neighbors--unless the U.S. decides to invade.

"The U.S. may know something about the existence of chemical weapons in Iraq, but we are not sure," said the nation's longtime security chief, Interior Minister Prince Nayif ibn Abdulaziz, adding that a U.S. attack on Iraq will create problems in the region "faster than any Iraqi operation against its neighbors."

For more than 70 years, Saudi Arabia and the United States have had close ties, a marriage of convenience that has served their mutual political and strategic interests. But relations have been strained since Sept. 11, 2001, and the priorities of both countries have diverged.

The U.S. government wants Hussein ousted. The Saudi leadership wants the Palestinian-Israeli conflict resolved first. Neither side has been willing to budge.

Against this backdrop, the White House faces the prospect of waging a major military campaign in the Persian Gulf region without the key strategic support of Saudi Arabia.

"The Saudis don't regard Saddam as a military threat," said a high-level Western diplomat based here in Riyadh, the capital. "For the Saudis, he is a political threat. The Saudis fear U.S. military action will not only divert attention and break up a coalition to fight terrorism, but will also foster terrorism."

So far, the Saudi government has been very clear. If the U.S. goes it alone, without the endorsement of the United Nations, the government will refuse to allow the use of its territory.

When authorities said recently they would allow U.S. forces to operate here if there is a U.N. resolution, observers say, the goal was to thwart a war by pressuring Hussein to let in weapons inspectors. It was not meant as a nod to the U.S. agenda.