After one year in Afghanistan, are U.S. troops close to winning the war or is Al Qaeda about to release a devastating death trap?

This month, one year after the 9/11 attacks, there has been much talk that we have the terrorists on the run and are winning the War on Terrorism. The Afghan camps have been destroyed, the Taliban and al Qaeda have been overthrown and mostly forced out of Afghanistan, their command structure and ability to operate has been severely disrupted. Furthermore, the West has not experienced another major terrorist attack and a number of smaller attacks have been thwarted in both the U.S. and in Europe. This heightened sense of security in the West has succeeded in unearthing al Qaeda and sympathetic individuals in a number of European and Middle Eastern countries, which has stopped a number of dangerous attacks.

The picture painted by governments and media has been one of a highly successful campaign waged by the U.S. and allies that caught the Taliban and al Qaeda by surprise, sent them scurrying for the mountains, where significant sections of them were killed and their supplies destroyed, their camps wiped out and their ability to function as a network severely undermined. According to this view, al Qaeda was caught and punished and is now a shattered group reduced to panic and disorder.

Yet, we might be in danger of overestimating our successes. We may be gauging our success by our standards and by rules of engagement that have been applied to traditional military combat, counter-intelligence and previous anti-terrorist groups. Although it is true that al Qaeda and the Taliban have suffered important setbacks, the central command still exists and has influence, it is operationally effective and highly dangerous and much of its financial and logistical capabilities remain in tact. Indeed, al Qaeda may be more dangerous and difficult to track down and destroy now than before.

Al Qaeda is extremely flexible and its cadre operatives are trained and able to function independently. The CIA describes them as highly professional and disciplined combatants with skills as good or beyond those of a normal combat soldier. They have been trained in how to maintain cult cells and lie low patiently in the West, fabricate and use disguises and false papers, communicate with extreme secrecy and, moreover, to plan and operate independently using a wide variety of weapons and explosives, including biological and chemical ones. They are able to bide their time and meticulously prepare to attack, as was seen not only on September 11, but also in the Embassy bombings of Kenya and Tanzania and the USS Cole. One of the key purposes of the Afghan camps was to create such independent units for global operations over long periods.

Al Qaeda, then, is one of the most sophisticated, cunning and intelligent terrorist cults to exist in history. Its leaders are a combination of highly educated and intelligent people and expert, battle-hardened military strategists.