New Jersey Redraws Party Lines

Senator Robert G. Torricelli's withdrawal from the New Jersey race last week could mean defeat for the state's Democrats. Not only did they lose the advantage of incumbency, but the legal and political battles over his replacement could linger through the remainder of the campaign.

Yet unless the United States Supreme Court reverses the New Jersey Supreme Court's decision allowing the Democratic Party to replace Mr. Torricelli on the ballot with former Senator Frank Lautenberg, the Democrats stand a good chance of winning the election. That's because New Jersey, which voted for Republican presidential candidates from 1968 through 1988, is part of a nationwide swing — particularly strong in the Northeast, Far West and parts of the Midwest —toward the Democratic Party.

The first and most obvious reason for this trend is that the parties have changed. The New Jersey Republican Party used to be dominated by New Deal liberals, but since the late 70's conservatives have played a growing role. Republicans would nominate some moderates like former governors Thomas H. Kean and Christie Whitman, but they would also regularly back conservative candidates like gubernatorial nominees Jim Courter and Bret D. Schundler, whom Democrats easily defeated. Meanwhile, after voters denied re-election to Gov. Jim Florio, a Democrat, in 1993, largely because of his tax increases, New Jersey Democrats have moved to the political center. Gov. James E. McGreevey was the chairman of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council in New Jersey and is fiscally cautious.

But the state's electorate has also changed dramatically. New Jersey used to be known for its heavy industry and its midsized immigrant cities, but it has become the nation's pre-eminent suburban, postindustrial state. It's a leader in financial and commercial services; it still makes goods, but many of them, like pharmaceuticals, are the products of extensive research and design. Professionals make up almost a quarter of New Jersey's work force, compared to 15 percent nationally.

In the 1950's, professionals voted Republican. But since the 1960's they have come to care more about clean air and water, women's rights, gun control and campaign finance reform. Many professionals, like doctors, worry that the quality of their work is being undermined by market forces. They don't like budget deficits and are leery of big spending programs, but they are concerned about inequality and injustice. And they increasingly vote Democratic.