Mobilizations Hint at Date and Strategy for Iraq War

Summary

As the debate over a potential U.S. attack on Iraq continues in Washington and abroad, a subtle increase in the mobilization of Army combat troops is underway. This development offers a hint to the Pentagon's evolving Iraq strategy, with the specific units involved indicating that a conventional attack on Iraq could be slated for January or February, with a major thrust possibly coming from Turkey.

Analysis

According to a July 31 news release by the U.S. Department of Defense, the total number of National Guard and Reserve personnel on active duty in support of the war on Al Qaeda declined over the previous week by 834 people to 79,780 troops. This represents the fifth consecutive week of declines in mobilized guard and reserve troops, with the total mobilized now down to levels not seen since mid-March.

However, while reductions continue in the number of mobilized Air National Guard and Air Force, Navy, Marine Corps and Coast Guard Reserve forces, call-ups of Army National Guard and Reserve troops continue to rise. Total mobilized Army forces surpassed those of the Air Force in the week preceding July 24, the first time this has happened since call-ups began Sept. 20, 2001.