Thursday, March 21, 2002

Economics for Democrats: The recession may be over, but not everyone's making out fine.


A recession was supposed to rescue the Democrats in next November's midterm election. Even if they had little else, Democratic strategists expected, they could bash Bush for a weak economy. But the recession evidently is over almost before it began, and it's not even April. The unemployment rate has declined for two straight months and may not reach 6 percent. Economic growth has turned positive. Other standard economic indicators -- inventories, consumer spending, factory orders, and so on -- suggest an economy in recovery. This surprising turn raises two questions: First, is the recovery real and durable? And second, what does this do to the Democrats? Seemingly, they are stuck with an unelected Republican president who had the luck first to stumble into a security crisis that allowed him to impersonate Churchill, and then into a quick economic turnaround for which he can credit his Reaganesque tax cut.

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