Diplomatic reality could render the Bush plan unworkable

Now that the gauntlet has been thrown down, the Bush administration's best-case scenario for confronting Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is a rapid sequence of events resulting in the dismantling of his deadliest weapons - or in military action.

US President George Bush stressed the urgency of action again on Saturday before meeting Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi at Camp David.

But the reality of the unfolding diplomatic drama might be quite different.

Indeed, the momentum generated by the President's galvanising speech to the UN General Assembly on Thursday is likely to meet a series of hurdles that could both slow it and make the process much messier than it now appears, according to UN diplomats, former weapons inspectors and Iraq experts.

The preferred US timetable is tight:



Two weeks or less to win compromise on a tough UN resolution ordering Iraq to "comply or else" on disarmament and authorising the use of force if necessary to secure that goal.


An additional four weeks to get UN weapons inspectors back into Iraq to begin finding and dismantling its nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and ballistic missiles.


Then, within six months or so, Iraq would surrender its arsenal and potentially also begin to comply with a host of other UN resolutions. At the first sign of obstruction, UN members would be empowered to use force.