Egypt's Al Qaeda Intelligence Forcing Saudis Into Corner

Summary

The Saudi Arabian government recently announced the capture of
suspected al Qaeda members, while simultaneously publicizing its
release of Saudi citizens who fought in Afghanistan. Egyptian
intelligence about al Qaeda's presence in Saudi Arabia is forcing
the kingdom to act publicly to appease Washington. However, it
must balance this with contrasting announcements at home -- or
risk domestic opposition boiling over.

Analysis

London-based Arabic-language newspaper Al Hayat reported June 17
that 160 Saudi citizens who were arrested in January after
returning home from Afghanistan have been released. According to
Saudi security sources, the men had carried out military
operations in Afghanistan against U.S. and Northern Alliance
forces. Nevertheless, they were judged not to have engaged in
"any activity threatening to the security of Saudi Arabia or
other countries," the paper reported.

Only one day later, Saudi officials announced that they had
arrested seven suspected members of al Qaeda several months ago.
The group, consisting of six Saudis and a Sudanese, were accused
of planning to attack "key installations" -- including the Prince
Sultan air base used by U.S. troops -- with explosives and
surface-to-air missiles, Agence France-Presse reported. Discarded
firing tubes from missiles have been found near U.S. bases in
Saudi Arabia.

Both the al Qaeda arrests and the prisoners' release were well
known to U.S. intelligence. Therefore, the most interesting
question is not only why the Saudis made the announcement, but
also why now? It appears the Saudis are feeling the heat from an
Egyptian investigation into al Qaeda's presence in Saudi Arabia,
and they must therefore make a reluctant public show of support
to the United States. However, they also must be careful to avoid
being seen as Washington's puppet.

The Saudis are playing to two different audiences, the first of
which is domestic. There are elements in the country, including
influential Saudis, that are sympathetic to al Qaeda, and there
are many more who are profoundly uncomfortable with the U.S.
military's continuing presence. The Saudi government must move
cautiously to placate these factions.

On the other hand, the Saudis also must play to the United
States, which not only is a superpower capable of destabilizing
the entire region, but also has military forces inside the
kingdom. The Saudis use the Americans to protect the regional
balance of power. They cannot afford a complete breach with the
United States, and so are moving along a tightrope. They must
convince the United States that they are cooperating against al
Qaeda, while at the same time demonstrating to the domestic
factions that they are not cooperating too much. Balance is
everything.

For obvious reasons the Saudis are more willing to work with the
United States secretly than in public. The United States,
however, needs public indications of support backed by effective
action to bolster the domestic American opinion of the Saudis --
which is not particularly positive right now -- and to generate
the sense that the Saudis are part of an effective operating
coalition.

While the Americans need the Saudis to give them something
public, Riyadh cannot do so unless it can also demonstrate its
independence. Thus we have the virtually hand-in-hand
announcements of al Qaeda operatives captured and Afghan
combatants released.

That explains the why but not the reason making the announcement
now. Apart from the general pressure being applied by the United
States, an interesting incident occurred in Egypt late last week:
Security forces arrested Salah Hashem, a co-founder of the
radical Al-Gama'a al-Islamiya Islamic organization, which is
blamed for the massacre of tourists at Luxor, Egypt, in 1997.

Hashem has been considered a moderate in Al-Gama'a and supports a
cease-fire agreement between the group and the government.
Speculation surrounding his arrest did not necessarily imply that
he was a threat, only that he knew a great deal about close links
between Al-Gama'a and al Qaeda. Many of al Qaeda's members are
Egyptians who were originally Al-Gama'a members.

The Egyptians have been cooperating actively with U.S.
intelligence, and Hashem's detention is important because it
indicates two things. First, the willingness to arrest him shows
that the Egyptians are confident that they have Al-Gama'a under
control. Second, it exhibits the fact that the Egyptians are
reaching a level of clarity about the structure of al Qaeda that
was not available before. They would not arrest Hashem on a vague
fishing expedition -- but only if they felt that he knew
critically important things about al Qaeda.

One of the things he likely has knowledge of is the relationship
between the two most important elements in al Qaeda: Egyptian and
Saudi members. Hashem worked in Saudi Arabia from 1982 to 1985
and could therefore have information on people and activities
there. This is a critically important addition to the
intelligence Egypt has gathered about al Qaeda in general and the
presence and structure of al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia in particular.

Such information also disallows the Saudis plausible deniability.
The intelligence that the Egyptians have gathered through this
and many other arrests has put the Saudi government in a position
wherein Washington would regard failure to act on this
information as a refusal to cooperate. The Saudis cannot afford
this.

Therefore, not only must they act; they must act publicly. This
is why the arrests of the al Qaeda suspects that occurred months
ago have been announced now, and it is safe to assume that
further arrests that have not yet been announced are being made.

At the same time, the Saudis can't just "cooperate." For every
action, there will be a local reaction. Hence, linked with the
announcement of the al Qaeda arrests is the announcement of the
release of Saudis who fought in Afghanistan. For the U.S.
government, a much more important al Qaeda cell has been taken
down publicly while a much less critical group of operatives have
been released to appease domestic critics and assure them that
the kingdom remains independent.

This may achieve the balance between the needs of the Saudis and
the United States, but if the Egyptians create problems for the
Saudis with their investigation into al Qaeda, then some sort of
conflict is sure to erupt between Riyadh and Cairo. Saudi Arabia
is increasing contact with Sudan -- Sudanese President Omar
Bashir traveled to the country June 17 -- which the Saudis could
possibly use as a proxy against Egypt.
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