An Iraq war could fan flames of recession

It is always said that truth is the first casualty of war. Not so. As any motorist filling up the tank at the weekend could testify, the first casualty of war is the oil price. The determination of George Bush and Tony Blair to take military action against Saddam Hussein has prompted a sharp rise in the price of crude, now changing hands at almost $25 a barrel, a third higher than its trough last autumn.
Despite this, the economic consequences of a war against Iraq have barely rated a mention in the west. There has been plenty of talk about weapons of mass destruction, military options, UN resolutions, even of whether George Bush is motivated by the desire to finish the job his dad started back in 1991. But virtually nothing about what would happen to jobs and growth. This is all the more remarkable at a time when the three biggest global economies have endured their first synchronised downturn in more than a quarter of a century. The US and Britain might argue that the prize of toppling Saddam is well worth the risks, but the risks need to be discussed.