Hamas Holds Advantage in Gaza Campaign

Summary

Israel began preparations May 9 for an offensive in the Gaza
Strip, massing troops along the border and calling up reservists.
The government has identified militant group Hamas, which took
credit for a suicide bombing this week, as its key target. An
operation in Gaza, however, will be substantively different from
the recent campaign in the West Bank and likely will be more
intensive.

Analysis

Israel massed troops overnight on the outskirts of the Gaza Strip
in preparation for a military offensive in the tiny territory,
following a suicide bombing near Tel Aviv earlier this week that
killed 16 Israelis. The military will reportedly target bases
belonging to militant group Hamas, which took credit for the
bombing, but the operation will reportedly not be as wide-scale
as the recent Israeli offensive in the West Bank, the Israeli
daily Ha'aretz reported May 9.

STRATFOR has written extensively on the probable shape and scope
of an Israeli military campaign in the Gaza Strip. Hamas -- the
government's identified target, which is dispersed throughout
Gaza and engaged in both security and humanitarian operations --
enjoys broad popular support and is well trained in guerrilla
tactics and countermeasures. Unlike the recent West Bank
operation, where urban guerrilla warfare was confined to a few
places, an Israeli military incursion into Gaza will likely be
bloodier and more intensive.

Hamas is an acronym for Harakat al-Muqawamah al-Islamiyya (the
Islamic Resistance Movement). A Palestinian offshoot of the
Muslim Brotherhood, the organization mirrors its Egyptian
counterpart by balancing its militant activities with grassroots
organizing and social services.

Hamas administers thousands of mosques, schools, hospitals,
clinics, youth groups, athletic clubs, daycare and food-
distribution centers in Gaza, providing the bulk of social
services to residents. According to the Jewish Post newspaper, 95
percent of the group's $40 million to $70 million budget goes to
social services.

Such a strategy gives the group broad popular support and also
allows it to operate openly throughout the territories. This
poses the greatest challenge to an Israeli military offensive
aimed at disrupting Hamas' suicide-bombing network. Israel's goal
will be to take out Hamas' infrastructure; the problem for them
is the group's infrastructure primarily consists of people.
Without intelligence to identify specific leaders, the Israeli
military will implement a broadside assault on the entire Hamas
organization, including its social services network in all of the
Palestinian areas in Gaza.

There is no question that the Gaza Strip is smaller than the West
Bank. Indeed, the territory measures a total of 139 square miles,
compared to the 2,262 square miles of the West Bank. This will
make the division of the territory by the Israel Defense Forces
into manageable sections much easier.

Gaza also has approximately 1.1 million Palestinians, almost at
much as the entire West Bank's 1.6 million Palestinians. But the
population density is exponentially larger: approximately 8,000
Palestinians per square mile, compared with 700 Palestinians per
square mile in the West Bank.

Moreover, both residents in the Gaza Strip and Hamas members are
distinctly different in their approach to the conflict with
Israel from their West Bank counterparts. Gazans are a much
poorer, less educated populace, and their attitude toward Israel
is more hard-line and radical. This lends itself to stauncher
resistance and a greater willingness to engage in guerrilla
activities.

In fact, some of the most psychologically devastating attacks
Palestinians have launched successfully against Israel since the
start of the intifada almost 20 months ago have occurred in Gaza.
Palestinian militants in the territory have twice this year
successfully ambushed and destroyed Israeli Merkava tanks,
considered one of the most indestructible tanks in the world.

The Iz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the militant wing of Hamas, is
also known to use timed and remote-controlled bombs, commando
attacks and armed ambushes including assaults on both military
targets and Israeli settlers. Reports already indicate that Gazan
residents have prepared sand barricades rumored to be armed with
explosives to block an IDF advance into the cities and refugee
camps.

Another advantage the Palestinians in Gaza have is access to
underground tunnels to Egypt. Though the Israeli military
continually monitors activities along the border and shuts down
these tunnels as they are discovered, reports suggest that some
continue operating and are being used to smuggle weapons in from
Egypt. The Gazans are also making their own weaponry, including
the short-range Qassam rocket.

Hamas uses the Gaza Strip's compactness and population density to
its advantage, maintaining a social network that ensures support
among the population and a ready supply of recruits. Though
accurate force numbers for the group are unknown, Hamas
reportedly has a dedicated group of fighters that number in the
hundreds and supporters in the tens of thousands.

Positioned on the edge of Gaza, the IDF faces a geographically
smaller and yet more difficult operation. Given the
circumstances, the geography and the attitude, the IDF must
consider the entire Gazan population hostile and potential
combatants, which is a force multiplier for Hamas.
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